Spain could require up to 75 GW of electrolyzer capacity and 301 TWh of electricity annually by 2050 to produce synthetic fuels for aviation and shipping, according to a roadmap by Transport & Environment (T&E), prepared with technical support from Comillas Pontifical University.
The projected electricity demand is around 15% higher than Spain’s total electricity consumption in 2025. The challenge is not only the scale of investment but also the timing. Facilities expected to supply synthetic aviation fuel from 2030 to 2035 need to reach final investment decisions in 2026 and 2027, while developers face uncertain demand, high production costs, and limited operating capacity.
T&E projects that annual synthetic fuel demand for aviation and maritime transport will rise from 4 petajoules in 2030 to 518 PJ in 2050. Aviation will drive early demand, partly because of the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, which introduces progressively stricter requirements for sustainable aviation fuels, including synthetic fuels.
Maritime demand is expected to grow more rapidly later. In T&E’s scenario, synthetic fuel demand from shipping rises from 77 PJ in 2040 to 265 PJ in 2045, increasing pressure to develop production facilities, fuel supply chains, and port infrastructure before demand peaks.
Producing approximately 6 million metric tons of green hydrogen annually would require 37 GW to 50 GW of electrolyzers operating 6,000 to 8,000 hours per year. At lower utilization rates of 4,000 to 5,000 hours, capacity requirements rise to 60 GW to 75 GW.
These figures substantially exceed Spain’s 12 GW electrolyzer target for 2030 under its National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan. Higher utilization could reduce the capacity required, but depends on access to reliable, competitively priced electricity.
Renewable generation, transmission networks, electrolyzers, and fuel synthesis plants will therefore need coordinated development. Without sufficient grid capacity and affordable power, installed hydrogen production capacity may fall short of its projected output.
T&E estimates Spain will need 32 million metric tons of CO₂ annually by 2050 if shipping adopts ammonia, or 41.5 million metric tons if it uses methanol. Potential domestic biogenic CO₂ supplies are estimated at around 20 million metric tons annually, covering approximately 63% of demand in the ammonia scenario and 48% in the methanol scenario.
These estimates represent potential resources rather than guaranteed industrial supplies. Dispersed sources, capture costs, transport requirements, and competition from other applications could limit availability. Direct air capture could provide another source, but its energy demand and cost would affect fuel economics.
Fuel choice will influence infrastructure requirements. Synthetic methanol requires carbon feedstock, while ammonia does not, although both pathways require substantial renewable electricity and hydrogen.
Spain has announced projects representing approximately 450,000 metric tons per year of eSAF capacity and 1.6 million metric tons of oil equivalent in e-ammonia and e-methanol production. However, T&E reports that less than 50 MW of electrolyzer capacity is operational, fewer than 800 MW have reached final investment decision, and no eSAF project has reached that stage.
The gap between announcements and committed investment reflects uncertainty over fuel prices, offtake agreements, electricity costs, and infrastructure availability. Developers must finance facilities years before demand reaches the levels projected for the 2040s.
Electricity accounts for an estimated 60% to 80% of green hydrogen production costs, making synthetic fuel economics highly sensitive to power prices and utilization rates.
T&E proposes long term offtake agreements, two sided auctions, more predictable electricity costs, and coordinated planning for transmission, electrolyzers, and port infrastructure. It also suggests using revenues from the European Union Emissions Trading System to support long term contracts.
These measures could reduce investment risk, but their effectiveness will depend on contract design and the allocation of costs between producers, fuel buyers, and public support mechanisms.
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