In a new study, TNO has updated the future scenarios for the Dutch energy supply drawn up two years ago.
Using these scenarios, TNO examined what the tightening of climate targets (at least 55% CO2 reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050) means for making the Dutch energy system more sustainable after 2030.
The study paints a picture of our future energy system including the use of renewable energy sources, green hydrogen and possibly nuclear energy. One conclusion remains unchanged: a scenario with higher ambitions will not lead to higher costs.
Martin Scheepers, TNO expert and lead author of the scenario study, “The two scenarios, ADAPT and TRANSFORM, sketch future scenarios for the Dutch energy supply after 2030 and provide insight into the consequences of the tighter targets. They show how a climate-neutral energy system can be achieved with various sustainability ambitions. The starting point is the pursuit of an energy system at the lowest cost to society.”
Both scenarios assume the same amount of CO2 to be reduced by 2050, but ADAPT is less ambitious and contributes less to meeting the Paris climate targets. Fossil fuels are still partly used as feedstock, and emissions from international air and maritime transport are reduced by only half. The TRANSFORM scenario sets the bar much higher. First of all, behavioral changes and further energy savings reduce the demand for energy. Moreover, the Netherlands can largely meet its own energy demand thanks to the generation of electricity by the wind farms in the North Sea.
“We often talk about decarbonization of industry, or minimizing CO2 emissions, but this is also about recarbonization,” says Scheepers. “You make sure that all the molecules in plastics and fuels eventually become green. For the production of sustainable chemicals and fuels, the industry uses carbon from bio-resources, from recycled plastics, and CO2 captured from the air. Less demand and more reuse go hand in hand here.”
The TRANSFORM scenario, which is far-reaching thanks to behavioral change, is about making not only energy but also raw materials more sustainable. The domestic production of green chemicals and fuels for international aviation and shipping has a major role to play here. By 2050, 90% of high-value chemicals will be made from renewable carbon, derived from biomass or CO2 from the air. A second key assumption is the recycling of plastics to bring a circular economy closer.
In the future, our country will continue to import energy and raw materials. By switching to renewable energy sources, dependence on coal, oil and natural gas will drop by about 26% and natural gas by 33% to 46% by 2030. If fossil fuels are still used in the ADAPT scenario even in 2050, TRANSFORM deliberately assumes that our country can meet the vast majority of its energy demand itself with renewable energy sources. However, it will still be necessary to partially import biofuels and exchange electricity with other countries.
In TRANSFORM, the boundaries of the possible were explored and calculated. Hydrogen plays a crucial role here and is needed in large quantities for the production of green chemicals, plastics and synthetic fuels. In order to be able to produce the hydrogen entirely domestically, the use of solar and wind energy must be maximized by 2050. If this proves insufficient, nuclear power as an additional source will be unavoidable. In ADAPT, green hydrogen is also used for domestic heating, but the total hydrogen demand is smaller than in TRANSFORM.
“We will have to strive to maximize the use of solar and wind for our energy supply and make heavy industry more sustainable. Nuclear power can be a necessary and CO2-free addition, but it must not overshadow the ambitions for solar and wind power. In the scenarios, we reason on the basis of the most cost-effective solution for our society,” says Scheepers. “Giving nuclear energy a greater role than sun and wind does not fit with that. The demand for energy, especially through the electrification of industry, is heading for 300 terawatt hours (TWh*) or even more than 500 TWh cannot be ruled out. In the latter case, you won’t be able to make it with just solar and wind anymore.”
A major difference between the two scenarios relates to CO2. Whereas in ADAPT there is the capture of CO2 from fossil sources that is stored in empty gas fields under the North Sea, in TRANSFORM most of the CO2 is biogenic and is reused in the process.
