Mainland China has identified hydrogen as a pivotal element in its strategy for a low-carbon energy transition. With the country’s national plan emphasizing the importance of hydrogen for decarbonization, China is poised to become a global leader in green hydrogen production.
According to Rystad Energy, China is on track to install approximately 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of hydrogen electrolyzer capacity by the end of the year, capable of producing 220,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of green hydrogen—6 kilotonnes per annum (ktpa) more than the rest of the world combined.
National Plan and Current Progress
China’s commitment to hydrogen is outlined in the ‘Medium and Long-Term Strategy for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry,’ released by the National Development and Reform Commission in early 2022. This comprehensive roadmap details the country’s hydrogen goals from 2021 to 2035, setting ambitious production targets. By the end of 2025, China aims to produce 200,000 tpa of green hydrogen, a goal that will likely be surpassed by the end of this year based on current projections.
In 2023 alone, China installed a cumulative 1 GW of electrolyzer capacity, reinforcing its position as a leader in adopting this technology. However, despite these impressive advancements, a significant portion of China’s hydrogen supply still comes from grey hydrogen, produced through coal gasification or steam methane reforming (SMR). Transitioning to low-carbon hydrogen production methods is essential for China to meet its dual carbon objectives of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Technological and Policy Challenges
While China’s hydrogen initiatives are making considerable progress, several technological and policy challenges need to be addressed. The national plan sets out ambitious targets, but the standards and solutions proposed fall short of the more stringent benchmarks set by European counterparts. One of the critical issues is the ambiguity surrounding the definitions of ‘low carbon’ and ‘renewable’ hydrogen within China’s policies.
Minh Khoi Le, Head of Hydrogen Research at Rystad Energy, emphasizes adopting clear, stringent definitions to catalyze meaningful change. “To truly catalyze meaningful change, China must adopt clear and stringent definitions that align with global best practices, such as those seen in Europe,” Le explains. “By establishing unequivocal standards, China can ensure that its hydrogen initiatives contribute significantly towards a sustainable future, both domestically and globally.”
