In terms of the passenger automobile industry, fuel cell electric cars (FCEV) had a successful year last year, at least on the surface.
With the second-generation Mirai FCEV and the NEXO FCEV, Toyota and Hyundai both experienced strong sales, more than compensating Honda’s declaration in June 2021 that it would cease manufacture of the Honda Clarity FCV.
In the three years from 2020 to 2021, global sales of Toyota fuel cell vehicles more than quadrupled, reaching 5,918 vehicles, surpassing the previous best-ever sales year of 2017, which saw 2,741 vehicles sold. In a similar vein, Hyundai sold 6,781 fuel cell NEXOs in 2020, with sales increasing by 42 percent to 9,620 cars in the following year.
On the surface, this appears to be a favorable development for the fuel cell business. However, taking a deeper look at the factors driving this rise illustrates just how far Toyota, Hyundai, and the governments promoting the use of fuel cell vehicles will have to go in order to maintain this upward momentum.
For example, the Mirai was apparently offered in California at a 65 percent reduction of its $50,000+ original price, according to reports. Toyota offered a $20,000 refund on top of an extra $12,500 in federal and state tax breaks, bringing the price of the 2021 Mirai down to around $18,000 in the United States! Toyota also provided a $15,000 gasoline credit for the first three years of operation, which added to the overall appeal of the package. A $50,000 automobile for less than $20,000 with 100,000 miles of free gasoline is unquestionably an appealing proposal and one that will be purchased.
The same may be said about Hyundai. Hyundai NEXOs were delivered in South Korea in large numbers in 2021, accounting for 88 percent of the 9,620 vehicles sold globally. Incentives from the South Korean government and state in 2021 ensured that sales of the NEXO, which were priced at $60,000 apiece, were accompanied by a subsidy plan of around $30,000. That is a substantial 50 percent savings. In order to maintain such support for an extended length of time, one must consider the following:
The commercialization of the Mirai and NEXO cars proves that the use of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells in automotive applications is a sound technological decision in terms of cost and performance (although Hyundai recalled 15,000 NEXOs in August 2021 to address a rattle issue). In comparison to similar battery-powered electric vehicles, PEM fuel cells, which use compressed gaseous hydrogen as fuel, can provide a greater driving range and a faster refilling time. With FCEVs, however, neither the fuel cells nor the absence of infrastructure for hydrogen recharging (although that infrastructure is also lacking) is the primary issue; rather, it is the high emissions and the high cost of hydrogen itself that are the primary issues.
Emissions from FCEVs are a source of concern
According to the report, “Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2022-2042,” well-to-wheel emissions from the fuel cell and battery electric vehicles are compared to tank-to-wheel emissions from automobiles with internal combustion engines in terms of gCO2/km. The creation of hydrogen (H2), like the generation of electricity, has an impact on the environment’s carbon footprint. The electrolysis of water results in the production of low-carbon green hydrogen. In order to generate 1 kilogram of hydrogen gas, electrolysis takes around 50 kWh of energy; hence, the carbon footprint of H2 produced by electrolysis is mostly determined by the carbon intensity of the electricity utilized. Green hydrogen is produced entirely from renewable sources of energy and has the potential to be an exceptionally low-carbon fuel.
Problem is, green hydrogen is not currently being generated in big numbers, and when it is, it is extremely costly compared to other forms of hydrogen. In today’s world, the great majority (about 95 percent) of hydrogen is created by the steam-methane reforming of natural gas, a technique that is less expensive but produces considerable amounts of CO2. According to the EPA, this “grey H2” has an emissions footprint of around 10.9 kgCO2/kgH2.
Toyota claims that the new Mirai has a fuel consumption of 0.86 kg H2/100 km, which means that the Mirai with gray H2 produces around 94 g CO2/km, whereas the NEXO (1 kilogram H2/100 km) emits approximately 109 g CO2/km. When compared to the CO2 emissions from the tailpipes of current internal combustion engines, these figures represent just a modest improvement. Those who have purchased FCEV vehicles may rest certain that their zero-emission road driving (consisting only of water and heat) will improve local air quality, but the world’s ecosystem still has a long way to go before it is saved. The conclusion is that fuel cell vehicles require green hydrogen in order to be considered fully “green.”
The cost of hydrogen
Montpellier, France, took the choice in January 2022 to cancel an order for 51 hydrogen fuel cell buses and instead choose for electric buses, therefore canceling the €29 million (US$33 million) Montpellier Horizon Hydrogène project. The decision was taken in order to save money. An electrolyzer with a hydrogen storage capacity of 2 MW was to be developed in collaboration with the EDF subsidiary Hynamics and driven by 2.8 MW of photovoltaics, with the capacity to create 800 kg of green hydrogen per day. In contrast, according to an analysis of the project’s financial records, the running expenses of the fuel cell buses were 0.95 euros ($1.08) per kilometer traveled, while the operating costs of battery-electric buses were 0.15 euros ($0.17) per kilometer traveled, respectively.
The availability of inexpensive green hydrogen will be vital to the development of fuel cell cars. It is a brave administration that is committing to significant public investment to assist the purchase of fuel cell vehicles, with the assurance that the fuel will be available one day to make them zero-emission vehicles. For corporations willing to invest, green hydrogen generation represents enormous potential. However, substantial production and distribution obstacles must be addressed before H2 can be used as a cost-effective, zero-emission car fuel. For the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) who have been developing fuel cell cars for the past 30 years, mass production of affordable green hydrogen cannot come fast enough; they require it now.
