The balance of power in the energy markets will also change as a result of future industrial production using less coal, oil, and gas. A study estimated that the investments will cost ten trillion dollars.
It represents a revolution for the economy since by the middle of the century, production should be as climate-neutral as possible. The big transformation necessitates more than only the usage of electricity generated by solar and wind energy. Hydrogen is used in many industrial processes, such as those that produce steel and chemicals. According to reports, heavy vehicles, and aircraft also rely on volatile molecules, which can be produced electrolytically using renewable energy sources.
Both the investments required to do this and the impact on the world’s energy markets will be significant. By the middle of the century, 10 trillion dollars will be required globally to expand green hydrogen production and transportation. The consulting company Deloitte Sustainability & Climate’s analysis came to this result.
The consultants estimate that the resulting market may bring in up to $285 billion in annual income. Yet, according to Deloitte partner Bernhard Lorentz, lead author of the paper “A Security Policy for the Global Hydrogen Economy,” green hydrogen will “alter the global balance of power in the energy industry.” The United States continued to be the world’s superpower. In addition to being able to provide itself with the prized chemical, North America may even overtake Europe as the second-largest exporter.
China, however, is posing a threat to the US. Because, according to Deloitte consultants, if the Middle Kingdom is successful in raising the estimated 1.8 trillion dollars in investment expenditures required for this, it will become the world’s largest generator of green hydrogen. Yet, China will need to acquire green hydrogen due to the country’s high need for it. As a result, commerce with the USA, Australia, and the Middle East will be crucial for the nation.
Russia and the Middle East are becoming less significant
Russia and the Middle East, which have historically been important providers of fossil fuels like oil and gas, will lose importance at the same time. In addition to being able to be import-independent, Russia has the capacity to manufacture significant amounts of green hydrogen and export those quantities as well. But, because Western states will have enough alternatives to Russian hydrogen, the Deloitte experts conclude that as a “so-called renegade state,” they are unlikely to gain from these benefits.
The effects of this development on geopolitics are significant. Large regions are needed for the production of green hydrogen in addition to wind and sunlight. The analysis suggests that the USA, Latin America, North Africa, Namibia, and South Africa are suitable locations for manufacturing. Also, Germany and Europe would manufacture their own green hydrogen. They still mostly import energy, however, they are expected to import at least half of it. The study’s authors caution that “global rivalry among the major importing nations will constitute a significant challenge for Europe.”
South and North Africa have a lot of potentials
As a result, the authors advise forging fast energy collaborations with the biggest generating nations. The fact that North African nations are near the continent and have a huge potential for hydrogen generation makes them excellent. Even better, the gas might be piped straight into Europe, saving on the need to transform it into derivatives like ammonia and convey it there. Deloitte, however, believes that political unrest and instability are present in the majority of nations, which places a cap on Europe’s potential. Namibia and South Africa, in addition to Latin America, were particularly appropriate providers in this regard. The advisors advise that the present relationship with nations that export oil and gas should change in the future. It should involve assistance for economic development and be “mutually beneficial.”
Time, though, is of the essence. According to Deloitte folks, “China, the United States, and Japan are already in the process of defining the future structure of a global supply chain of green hydrogen and related commodities.” For Europe to succeed in the global race, its market regulations must also be developed as rapidly as feasible. The Deloitte managers’ top piece of advice for Germany is to create a commodities strategy as soon as possible.
