A new study published in the scientific magazine Nature calls into question the viability of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV).
FCEVs are a form of electric vehicle that competes with battery-electric vehicles (BEV). It is accomplished by the use of a fuel cell, which chemically transforms hydrogen to electricity. Several manufacturers (not many) are betting on the potential since it offers two advantages: reduced weight and increased ease of recharging. Hydrogen is a physical substance that can be refueled in seconds, just like gasoline. It does not emit greenhouse gases, depending on how it is manufactured (although most of it in circulation today is derived from the petroleum process).
Regrettably, the study indicates that the latter will never achieve the efficiency of the former. They state plainly that hydrogen is “unlikely to play a significant role in sustainable road transport.” This is the sentence that serves as the title of the published article.
The report notes that electricity and hydrogen are the two primary players in energy for a low-carbon future. It should be stated that hydrogen is and will continue to be critical in industry, transportation, and synthetic aviation fuels. However, it is not electric there: it is powered by hydrogen (which is exceedingly dangerous), using hydrogen-powered internal combustion or jet engines in place of diesel, bunker fuel, or kerosene.
However, in order to meet road transport needs, battery electric vehicles in both passenger and freight transport deserve increased attention.
Cycle of energy
The majority of automakers are pursuing battery electric vehicles. However, several manufacturers, such as Toyota, Hyundai, and General Motors, remain committed to hydrogen engines. As Electrek.co reports, several of the world’s largest FCEV ventures, such as the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo, have stalled despite years of investment and billions of dollars.
Additionally, the entire energy cycle of hydrogen cars is far less efficient (three times less efficient, as shown in the graph below from a study published on Phys.org, the online science news aggregator).
In a section on automobiles, the Nature study already reveals a majority of BEV vehicles over FCEV vehicles. For example, although around 25,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were on the road globally in early 2021, approximately 15 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are predicted to be on the road by then.
Not to mention that more than 90% of FCEVs are sold in only four countries: Korea, the United States, China, and Japan, with worldwide manufacturers offering only two types. In comparison, practically all automakers already sell electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with over 350 models available worldwide.
Structure of supply
When the issue of fuel cell fueling and charging is considered, there is another level of superiority for BEVs. The study reminds us that FCEV vehicles cannot be fueled at home and require a network of hydrogen-fueled filling stations. Given that there are approximately 540 hydrogen stations running globally (compared to over 10 million electric charging stations), it’s easy to see why there is a significant supply shortage.
On the other hand, battery electric vehicles obtain their electricity from the grid, whether it is domestic or public. Apart from the option available at home, by 2020, over 1.3 million public chargers would be in operation worldwide, with approximately a quarter being fast chargers (at least 22 kW of power). A diagram from the InsideEVs website illustrates the complexity of the two structural types:
Recently, operators of charging stations have begun developing high-powered fast chargers with outputs greater than 150 kW, generally up to 300 kW. Europe, which intends to phase out all new combustion engine vehicles by 2035, already has more than 1,000 300 kW charging stations in operation.
Range
As the study demonstrates, fuel cell vehicles were shown to be excellent for frequent long-distance travel (the higher energy density of compressed hydrogen exceeded the battery limits of electric cars). BEVs had a limited range of fewer than 150 kilometers – and charging them took several hours, but FCEVs can be refueled in a matter of minutes.
However, battery electric vehicles now have a range of approximately 400 kilometers in the actual world. This is without considering vehicles such as the Lucid Air, which has a range of 836 kilometers on a single charge, or current prototypes with a range of 1,000 kilometers, such as Mercedes-Vision Benz’s EQXX and Norwegian startup Fresco Motors’ Fresco XL. In any case, the latest generation of BEVs utilize 800 V batteries that can be charged in around 15 minutes for a 200 km range.
Hydrogen will never have a chance in commercial electric trucks.
According to the survey, there are approximately 30,000 battery electric trucks in stock globally – with more than 90% of them in China. These vehicles require a greater amount of charging power to recharge completely, and there is currently no specific infrastructure for them.
On the other hand, fuel cell electric trucks have only been tested in trials (by two manufacturers) and are not yet commercially available. While some truck manufacturers, such as Nikola Motors, say that they will have manufacturing FCEV semi-trucks accessible before 2027 (2023-24), the firm is moving slowly toward battery electric cars even then.
Incentive Programs for Electric Trucks
According to the study, with the new megawatt charging requirement for battery electric trucks and advancements in that category, the next generation of electric trucks would likely supplant hydrogen fuel cell cars. In response to aggressive carbon reduction objectives for heavy-duty vehicles, a number of manufacturers have announced new electric truck models (and improved versions of existing electric truck models, such as the Volvo VNR Electric.
Over 100 models for medium trucks (3.5 to 12 tons gross vehicle weight) and over 50 models for large trucks have been announced (gross vehicle weight over 12 tons). These trucks will be the first generation of battery electric trucks, with a range of 250 kilometers for medium trucks and 300 to 350 kilometers for big trucks.
Additionally, the research notes that numerous truck manufacturers, as well as fuel cell and infrastructure providers, have banded together and stated a goal of 100,000 FCEV trucks on European roads by 2030. Daimler Trucks have partnered with TotalEnergie to establish a hydrogen fueling infrastructure across Europe. Meanwhile, it is projected that second-generation battery electric vehicles will be widely available by that time.
According to a study published in Nature, the window of opportunity for hydrogen automobiles to gain a meaningful market share is nearly closed. Thus, the FCEV category has higher relevant operational expenses for trucks than it does for cars. In other words, it appears vital to quickly determine whether the market for fuel cell electric trucks is substantial enough to sustain the development of hydrogen technology or whether it is time to cut losses and redirect resources elsewhere.
