Chile’s Ministry of Energy has launched a public consultation on the updated National Green Hydrogen Strategy 2026–2030, signaling a recalibration of the country’s ambitions six years after the original roadmap.
The revised plan reduces production targets, adjusts projected costs upward, and emphasizes the development of local capabilities over large-scale international exports, reflecting both global market realities and domestic industrial priorities.
The most notable change is the reformulation of measurable objectives. While the 2020 strategy aimed for 25 GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030, the new framework sets production targets of 100–200 kilotonnes per year of green hydrogen for domestic consumption at the start of the next decade, scaling to 300–700 kilotonnes by 2035 for exports, and 2–3.5 million tonnes by 2050. By replacing gigawatt-based goals with regulatory, infrastructure, and industrial milestones, the government is signaling a shift from purely quantitative ambitions to practical enablers for industry growth.
Cost projections have also been revised. The USD 1.5/kg target from 2020 has been abandoned, with the strategy now estimating green hydrogen production below USD 4/kg by 2030, and costs falling under USD 2/kg only by 2045—roughly USD 600 per tonne for green ammonia. This adjustment responds to slower global market growth, a more moderate decline in electrolyser costs, and challenges in achieving economies of scale outside China.
Domestic consolidation is framed as a critical step for mitigating risks and scaling the industry efficiently. The strategy prioritizes leveraging local sectors, including mining and refining, as testbeds for technical learning and technology transfer, before Chile pursues large-scale export opportunities. This approach contrasts sharply with the export-centric orientation of the 2020 roadmap.
Hydrogen derivatives have gained increased prominence, with ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels recognized as essential to the logistical and commercial feasibility of the sector. The strategy’s title has been officially updated to “National Green Hydrogen and Derivatives Strategy”, reflecting the role of value-added molecules in enabling scalable hydrogen trade.
To support domestic industrial growth, the strategy establishes enabling milestones for 2030, including port logistics infrastructure, a national certification system, desalinated or recycled water for electrolysis, and pilot programs in technical education. These measures aim to ensure deployment is economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable.
Chile’s leadership in Latin America remains evident. The country has achieved USD 5 billion in investments and 5 GW of electrolysis capacity across operational, under-construction, and approved projects via the Sistema de Evaluación de Impacto Ambiental (SEIA) and the Corporación de Bienes de Capital. Future projections include USD 32 billion in investments by 2035 and the creation of 36,000–85,000 direct jobs, contributing to productive diversification in regions such as Magallanes and Antofagasta. The public consultation will remain open until 15 February 2026 via the Ministry of Energy, with the final strategy expected to integrate stakeholder feedback and be published in March.
