The Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI) looked at how a future hydrogen network in eastern Germany may be designed to meet demand and transit demands until 2045. Eastern Germany might become an energy hub as a result of this.
East Germany offers strong foundations for a future hydrogen economy, with concentrated consumption in industrial and urban centers, production near the shore, and large import and transit pipeline capacity from and to surrounding regions. In 2045, depending on how hydrogen consumption increases in specific industries, eastern Germany might face an annual hydrogen shortfall of up to 54 TWh.
In addition, there might be up to 48 TWh in transit needs, which would have to be supplied via transmission lines to surrounding regions. However, by 2045, many natural gas pipes would have to be converted to hydrogen, and new pipelines would have to be created. This is the conclusion of the EWI-commissioned research “Hydrogen market ramp-up in eastern Germany by 2045 – An infrastructure analysis based on regional generating potential and demand.”
Diversification” and “electrification
Two scenarios for the evolution of hydrogen demand and supply in East Germany are examined by the EWI team. The “diversification” scenario expects that hydrogen will play a bigger role in replacing fossil fuels, whereas the “electrification” scenario anticipates that energy would be mostly electric. The hydrogen balances that arise, together with analyses of anticipated import and export requirements in East Germany, present a plausible picture of future transportation needs.
The scenario only indicates a 2 TWh hydrogen shortfall in 2045 with significant penetration of electricity-based applications. Hydrogen transits are similarly rare, implying that the hydrogen network in the “Electrification” scenario would be much smaller than in the “Diversification” scenario.
Hydrogen production is concentrated in coastal regions in all scenarios, whereas consumption is mostly in industrial hubs and metropolitan areas. “There will most likely be a north-south gradient in hydrogen demand in eastern Germany,” says Dr. Eren am Manager and Head of Energy Resources at EWI, who co-wrote the report with Jan Kopp, David Schlund, and Philipp Theile. “Regional disparities, as well as the increased potential for hydrogen transits via eastern Germany, might become critical drivers of the expanding hydrogen infrastructure.”
New technology
In addition to electricity-based hydrogen production, climate-neutral hydrogen production technologies such as natural gas reforming or methane pyrolysis with carbon capture might potentially be climate-neutral alternatives with significant generating potential in eastern Germany. As a result, the region may become a net hydrogen exporter by 2030, with a production capacity of up to 366 TWh on the east German coast by 2045. More pipes must be converted to advance production levels than in the “Diversification” scenario.
Furthermore, electricity-independent production methods might contribute to supply security by providing assured capacity in the hydrogen supply in the case of peak demands. They could also be a more cost-effective option than importing green hydrogen.
The study.
