Global energy markets are entering a period of unprecedented constraint, with oil production peaking around 2018 and natural gas reserves now in structural decline. According to geologist and strategist Simon Michaux, new oil discoveries are consistently lagging behind consumption, making the development of a robust “after oil” strategy an urgent economic imperative.
In his latest webinar, Michaux argues that the prevailing focus on wind, solar, and conventional nuclear risks locking policymakers into technologies that cannot scale quickly or reliably enough to meet industrial demand.
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Central to his critique is the fragility of the current power grid. Grid operators are already struggling to manage the volatility of wind and solar, whose output can fluctuate unpredictably within hours. A blackout affecting Spain and Portugal illustrated the systemic risks of over-reliance on variable renewables without sufficient storage capacity. While industry norms assume that 5–7 hours of storage is adequate, Michaux’s modelling suggests real-world requirements could extend to 28 days to safeguard against extended weather-related generation shortfalls.
Even an aggressive build-out of today’s nuclear reactor designs would only offset a fraction of fossil fuel use by mid-century. To meet industrial-scale demand within the next decade, Michaux calls for a pivot toward advanced designs such as thorium-fueled small modular reactors (SMRs) and molten salt reactors (MSRs). The latter’s inherent safety—preventing catastrophic meltdown scenarios—and higher operational efficiency have already seen China move to commercial deployment. High-temperature gas-cooled reactors also feature in his blueprint, offering improved thermal efficiency without the same leak risks as pressurised water reactors.
However, the energy transition challenge is not purely technological. Michaux points to a looming shortage of key minerals—lithium, cobalt, nickel—required for a conventional renewable build-out, warning that global extraction plans are misaligned with material availability. His proposed “purple transition” blends advanced nuclear deployment with eco-centric resource management, where industrial symbiosis and waste-to-fuel systems reduce overall mineral dependency.
Michaux’s framework also challenges the assumption that urban sustainability is primarily a matter of retrofitting existing systems. He advocates for closed-loop cities powered by three-tiered resilient grids: primary systems for industry, secondary networks for municipal functions, and tertiary microgrids allowing households to actively manage their energy footprint. This model integrates transportation innovations—such as a spine rail network to replace heavy road freight—and industrial permaculture to recycle waste streams into usable inputs for manufacturing and agriculture.
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