Germany’s National Hydrogen Council has significantly revised its forecast for hydrogen demand, projecting a substantial increase across all economic sectors by 2030.
The updated assessment now estimates demand to be between 94 and 125 terawatt-hours (TWh), a notable rise from previous forecasts.
The council’s latest figures mark a substantial increase, with the lower end of the demand spectrum now 68% higher than last year’s forecast. This revised estimate includes a notable proportion of grey hydrogen, derived from fossil gas, particularly used in the chemicals sector. The gradual transition to green hydrogen underscores the complexity and scale of the challenge ahead.
Most of the anticipated hydrogen demand will come from the steel and chemicals industries. These sectors are pivotal for Germany’s economic stability and decarbonization goals. The use of hydrogen in heavy-duty freight transport also constitutes a significant share of the projected demand, emphasizing hydrogen’s role in reducing emissions from traditionally hard-to-decarbonize sectors.
The report indicates minimal initial demand for hydrogen in heating and electricity generation. This aligns with current energy strategies focusing on direct electrification and energy efficiency improvements in these areas.
Germany’s strategy to ramp up its hydrogen economy is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge among industrialized nations. The inclusion of grey hydrogen in the projections reflects the current industrial reliance on fossil fuels. Transitioning to green hydrogen, produced from renewable electricity, is essential for true decarbonization. This shift requires significant technological advancements and economic incentives to be viable at scale.
Germany’s hydrogen strategy emphasizes the need for coordination with other European and global partners. Avoiding carbon leakage and ensuring the relocation of hydrogen-relevant industries abroad do not undermine national and regional climate goals are critical considerations.
Established in 2020, the National Hydrogen Council comprises experts from diverse fields, including hydrogen production, research, industry decarbonization, and infrastructure. The council’s task is to outline pathways for implementing Germany’s hydrogen strategy effectively. Their updated assessment reflects a realistic, albeit ambitious, outlook on hydrogen’s role in achieving a climate-neutral economy.
