A groundbreaking study titled “Analysing the Prospects of Grid-Connected Green Hydrogen Production in Predominantly Fossil-Based Countries – A Case Study of South Africa” by Rebeka Béres, Ndamulelo Mararakanye, Christina Auret, Bernard Bekker, and Machteld van den Broek, published in the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, dives into the potential for South Africa to pivot towards green hydrogen production.
As developed regions seek sustainable energy sources, the spotlight has turned to green hydrogen, particularly from nations endowed with substantial wind and solar resources, such as South Africa. This study holds significant importance given South Africa’s potential to play a major role in the global green hydrogen market.
The research uncovers several pivotal insights:
1. Hydrogen Production and Power System Impact: Using PLEXOS, a powerful energy modeling tool, the study explores the effects of substantial hydrogen production on South Africa’s power grid. The results indicate a 20-25% increase in electricity costs under current renewable penetration scenarios, although the increase remains within an acceptable range.
2. Emission Factors and Costs: A critical highlight is the realization that producing 500 kilotonnes (kt) of hydrogen annually results in emission factors higher than that of grey hydrogen, ranging from 13 to 24 kgCO2 per kg of hydrogen. For South Africa to align with EU hydrogen standards, the nation would need to significantly ramp up its renewable energy installation – specifically, an additional 56 GW of wind and 43 GW of solar capacity would be required.
3. Cost Competitiveness: The study finds that the production cost of green hydrogen (2-3 USD/kgH2) could remain competitive in the international market, making South African hydrogen a viable export product.
Employing the PLEXOS energy modeling software, the researchers conducted an hourly resolution optimization to simulate different scenarios of hydrogen production. This detailed approach allowed for a comprehensive assessment of the impact on the national grid and associated costs.
