China’s hydrogen energy ambitions look to lag behind the country’s present economic trajectory, indicating that the country is wary of overextending itself in sectors that still require big scientific breakthroughs, experts said.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission’s 2035 development plan, the country aimed to have at least 50,000 hydrogen fuel-cell electric cars (FCEVs) on the road by 2025. It has 8,000 FCEVs in 2020 and could reach 77,900 by 2025 if present deployment rates continue.
Additionally, by 2025, the economic planning department expected to manufacture 100,000 to 200,000 tons of “green hydrogen.” By 2023, S&P Global Data anticipates a capacity of 300,000 tons.
“The figures reflect the current projection for the preparedness of hydrogen infrastructure to enable vehicle deployments,” said Alfred Wong, managing director for Asia-Pacific at Ballard Power Systems, a Canadian producer of fuel cells. Additionally, they demonstrate “the critical need for additional technological advances and breakthroughs in critical components necessary for the development of a self-sufficient domestic value chain.”
China is the world’s greatest producer of hydrogen, producing 33 million tonnes per year. According to the NDRC, approximately 80% is created from coal and natural gas, and the remainder as a byproduct of industrial output, with “green hydrogen” accounting for only a small portion.
Domestic hydrogen demand, which is now projected at 20 million tons per year, is expected to reach 35 million tons by 2030 and 60 million tons by 2050, according to China Hydrogen Alliance projections.
The cost of creating green hydrogen using renewable energy to electrolyze water is approximately four times that of coal gasification. Other expenses associated with the hydrogen supply chain, including as storage, transportation, and refueling, must also be reduced to increase market adoption, Wong added.
Technical advances in critical components should also be pushed, as China is still heavily reliant on imports for fundamental materials such as catalysts, electrolysis, carbon paper, and high strength carbon fiber for green hydrogen production, he said.
China intends to boost its domestic “green hydrogen” production capacity and accompanying infrastructure, in contrast to Japan and South Korea, which rely on hydrogen and its derivatives imports to meet their long-term decarbonisation ambitions.
Thus, according to Ankit Sachan, Asia hydrogen analyst at S&P Global Platts Analytics, China is taking a careful approach to self-sufficiency and creating domestic supply chains under its blueprint.
