India’s recent allocation of 862,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) of green hydrogen production capacity and 3,000 MW of electrolyser manufacturing to selected firms marks a new phase in its National Green Hydrogen Mission.
Unveiled at the World Hydrogen Summit 2025 in Rotterdam, the announcement reflects an aggressive industrial policy to position India as both a decarbonization leader and a future hydrogen exporter. Yet the sheer scale of the ambition—5 million metric tonnes (MMT) by 2030—raises critical questions about execution, infrastructure readiness, and international competitiveness.
India’s cumulative renewable energy installations now exceed 223 GW, including 108 GW of solar and 51 GW of wind, placing it among the top five global renewable markets. This renewable base underpins the green hydrogen strategy, but converting potential into actual export-grade hydrogen requires more than electricity. Electrolyser scaling, water availability, transmission infrastructure, and end-user integration remain unresolved challenges.
The central government has earmarked $2.4 billion under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, aiming to cut 50 MMT of CO₂ emissions annually, create 600,000 jobs, and attract $100 billion in investment. While these projections underscore the macroeconomic intent, the allocation mechanisms for capital, permitting, and project selection remain opaque. To date, the 862,000 TPA awarded covers just 17% of the 2030 target. Moreover, the 3,000 MW of electrolyser manufacturing capacity represents a fraction of what will be needed to achieve five MMT of hydrogen annually—suggesting the need for exponential capacity growth by mid-decade.
India’s export ambitions are particularly bold. Secretary Santosh Kumar Sarangi outlined a vision not only of domestic decarbonization but of becoming a global supplier of green hydrogen, particularly to Europe and Northeast Asia. However, with competitors like Australia, the UAE, and Namibia offering superior proximity to key maritime routes and larger-scale demonstration projects, India’s path to export leadership is far from assured.
Several policy mechanisms are intended to accelerate deployment. These include the Green Hydrogen Certification Scheme and regulatory waivers such as exemption from environmental clearance for hydrogen and ammonia projects. However, such streamlining also carries environmental and social risks, particularly in regions with water stress—an issue often underplayed in national-level planning but critical for electrolyser deployment, especially in arid zones.
India is also investing in port infrastructure, designating Kandla, Paradip, and Tuticorin as green hydrogen hubs. This tri-coastal approach suggests an effort to geographically diversify supply points and link to global trade lanes. Still, retrofitting ports for cryogenic hydrogen or ammonia handling involves major capital expenditure and years-long permitting and construction timelines—none of which have been fully addressed.
At the sub-national level, 15 states have announced hydrogen policies. While decentralization is essential in a federal system, the lack of harmonization in incentives, land use regulation, and power pricing could hamper coherent project execution. For instance, cost recovery for renewable electricity used in hydrogen production varies widely by state, potentially undermining competitiveness for export-focused projects.
Sectoral pilots in steel, mobility, and shipping are now underway, an encouraging sign of demand-side alignment. But these remain in early stages. Industrial offtakers have been reluctant to sign long-term purchase agreements at current green hydrogen price points, which in India still exceed $4/kg in most scenarios—well above the $1–2/kg benchmarks needed for global competitiveness.
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