The global hydrogen demand rose by 2.5% in 2023, reaching 97 million tonnes. This growth is mainly in the refining and chemical sectors and relies heavily on hydrogen from fossil fuels.
Low-emission hydrogen remains minimal, producing less than 1 million tonnes. However, there is potential for production to increase to 49 million tonnes annually by 2030 due to announced projects. Most of this growth is driven by electrolysis, with a significant increase in projects reaching final investment decisions. Currently, these projects predict an impressive fivefold increase in production by 2030, split between electrolysis and fossil fuels with carbon capture.
Despite the expanding project landscape, significant challenges threaten progress. Many projects face delays or cancellations due to unclear demand signals, financial obstacles, regulatory uncertainties, and operational issues. For the sector to meet its potential, it needs an annual growth rate of over 90% through 2030. This target exceeds the rapid growth experienced by solar PV in its development phases.
China is a notable leader in electrolyser capacity, holding over 40% of the global final investment decisions. The country benefits from its established manufacturing strength in clean energy technologies, housing 60% of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity. This expansion is set to reduce costs, similar to what happened with solar PV and battery production. Large Chinese solar panel manufacturers have entered the electrolyser market, contributing significantly to domestic capacity. Other regions, notably Europe and India, are rapidly increasing their involvement in electrolyser projects.
Even though setbacks persist, the hydrogen sector demonstrates notable potential. With continued investment and resolution of current challenges, the industry stands poised for crucial advancements. The pathway to achieving the ambitious production goals largely depends on strengthening the infrastructure, financial backing, and regulatory support necessary for success.
