According to the Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC), the UK could dominate European fuel cell production and be a global center of excellence, according to an event held in Westminster on the eve of the Spring Statement.
As the world continues to debate alternatives to its current reliance on fossil fuels for heating and transportation, as well as their sensitivity to global events, hydrogen is increasingly being touted as a possible solution.
APC analysis of the fuel cell and hydrogen tank system revealed that the most valuable components could be mass manufactured in the UK, reducing reliance on foreign markets and fostering long-term employment in transport and industrial energy solutions in the UK.
“We need to learn the lessons of the 1980s and 90s where we were caught sleeping at the wheel with lithium-ion battery production and the East Asian countries overtook us,” said APC CEO, Ian Constance.
“Families need jobs and security and there’s an opportunity here to create and safeguard green growth in an area where the UK already has existing capability.
“We already have 15% of the fuel cell value chain radiating from UK businesses but this could be as much as 65% just by expanding on current strengths in electrochemistry and coatings or using our automotive capability to volume manufacture components like bipolar plates and stack assemblies.
“Investment will be needed to retain this leading position but we’re sharing this insight in the hope it helps industry and government make long-term strategic decisions.”
APC forecasts explosive growth in fuel cell platforms for light duty vehicles beginning in 2030, as hydrogen refueling networks expand and the cost of hydrogen at the pump falls to $4–5 per kilogram. By 2035, they estimate that 14GW of on-board fuel stack power and 400,000 hydrogen carbon fiber tanks will be required to meet the demands of FCEV production in the United Kingdom alone. This equates to 140,000 vehicles.
Additionally, hydrogen combustion is gaining traction, particularly in the medium- and heavy-duty sectors. APC forecasts that by 2040, 40% of new HGVs sold in Europe will be battery electric, 30% will be fuel cell, and 15% will be hydrogen combustion.
The UK manufactured 1.3 million vehicles in 2019 (pre-pandemic), but 2.5 million light duty engines worth an estimated £8.5 billion. 80% of these were shipped to Europe. The APC is already funding hydrogen combustion engine projects with Cummins and Dolphin N2, which aim to maintain UK production of near-zero-tailpipe engines.
Additionally, the majority of vehicles manufactured in the United Kingdom are SUVs and 4x4s or utility vehicles, off-highway vehicles, light commercial vans, and prestige marques – all of which benefit from a hydrogen powertrain’s power, utility, range, and off-road capability.
Similarly, export and trade tariffs require a certain level of ‘local’ manufacturing, and APC is a firm believer in localizing the supply chain and anchoring vehicle production in the UK.
Constance added: “The question we should be asking is whether we can afford to NOT take the opportunity.
“There was a time when the UK led battery cells research but we failed to capitalise on that from a manufacturing perspective. We are catching up with ground-breaking research and gigafactory development – AESC Envision and Britishvolt announcing new plants in the past year – and we still expect batteries to dominate the passenger car sector in the next decade or so.
“But heavy-duty applications – public transport, marine, rail and air – will need a different solution. Hydrogen will play a part, the UK could have a key role – and that means jobs and economic growth.”
APC will continue to collaborate with government and industry to maximize the UK’s on-board hydrogen vehicle technology opportunity. As with batteries, ensuring that infrastructure keeps up with onboard innovation is a challenge that must be addressed for both refueling and generation.
The UK government’s hydrogen strategy, published in August 2021, lays out a clear path for blue and green hydrogen production, and DfT truck trials are being used to determine the infrastructure required to support future truck fleets.
