China’s dominance in large-scale electrolyser manufacturing is expected to diminish by 2030 as production capacity in the EU and other regions increases, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing report by the IEA reveals that if all planned manufacturing expansions materialize, China’s market share could decrease from 40% to 25%, while the EU’s share could rise from 20% to 25%. The US would maintain a 20% market share, with the remaining 30% accounted for by factories in other parts of the world.
However, the report lacks details about electrolyser production outside China, the US, and the EU. Notably, India, Australia, the Middle East, and Morocco have plans for significant electrolyser capacity expansion. The EU and the US are expected to reach 100% and 90% of their domestic demand through domestic manufacturing, respectively, which is encouraging for policymakers in Brussels and Washington striving to foster green technology industries.
The figures presented are based on announced manufacturing capacity and expansion plans, leaving room for potential errors. Currently, only 2% of the announced US-based electrolyser manufacturing capacity is under construction, while the figure is approximately 15% in the EU. Nevertheless, the IEA emphasizes that lead times of one to three years offer manufacturers time to scale up if subsidies are maintained.
It is worth noting that the estimates for China’s electrolyser manufacturing capacity may have been underestimated due to limited financial transparency, which means unannounced expansions could be underway. Additionally, announced manufacturing capacity may shift between countries as subsidies and regulations change, as acknowledged by the IEA.
The IEA anticipates the addition of 115GW of new capacity by 2030, contributing to a 20% growth in announced projects compared to the end of 2022. If realized, this expansion could lead to a 60% reduction in electrolyser costs. However, it is noteworthy that the previous Global Hydrogen Review published by the IEA forecasted a 70% reduction in electrolyser costs, possibly reflecting increased materials costs due to inflation.
As the electrolyser manufacturing landscape evolves, it will have a profound impact on the hydrogen market and the energy transition as a whole. The redistribution of market share among China, the EU, the US, and other regions will shape the development of sustainable hydrogen technologies and their accessibility worldwide. Meeting the projected capacity expansion targets will be crucial for driving down costs, increasing adoption, and accelerating the transition to a carbon-neutral future.
