As the world races to combat climate change, hydrogen emerges as a promising solution to decarbonize the power sector.
The recent proposed climate rules by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are set to drive the adoption of low-greenhouse gas hydrogen in natural gas-fired generators to meet stringent emissions standards. This shift has the potential to transform hydrogen into a pivotal energy source for the future.
The EPA’s draft rule, released in May, sets ambitious emissions standards for the nation’s natural gas-fired generator fleet. Under the proposed regulations, existing large-capacity generators and new plants can comply with the standards by co-firing low-carbon hydrogen at a volume of 30% in 2032. To meet this threshold, plants are likely to turn to green hydrogen, produced using non-emitting generators like solar, wind, and hydroelectric plants.
Recent modeling data from the EPA reveals that by 2035, an estimated 46 GW of capacity from new and existing natural gas-fired plants could adopt hydrogen co-firing to comply with the rules. California and the Northeast are expected to lead in hydrogen co-firing capacity, with a combined estimated demand of over 4 Mtpa of green hydrogen in 2035.
While the potential for green hydrogen is immense, significant challenges must be addressed for successful large-scale deployment. Meeting the projected hydrogen demand would require a substantial buildout of electrolyzers. However, many announced hydrogen projects have already secured offtakers for alternative purposes like ammonia production, leaving potential supply constraints.
Moreover, the existing hydrogen production facilities are mainly concentrated along the Gulf Coast and in Texas, while the highest projected demand lies in California and the Northeast. The lack of sufficient hydrogen pipeline networks could impede the transport of hydrogen to regions with the greatest need.
The transition to widespread hydrogen co-firing necessitates both producing sufficient quantities of green hydrogen by 2032 and establishing the necessary infrastructure. Power plants may need to explore producing their own green hydrogen onsite to overcome transportation challenges until regional supply networks materialize.
To meet the hydrogen demand projected by EPA’s scenario, an additional 22 to 29 GW of electrolyzer capacity buildout would be required, supplementing the already announced 15.5 GW of capacity in the U.S. Simultaneously, regions with high hydrogen co-firing potential would need to add even larger increments of renewable capacity to support fuel production.
Green hydrogen’s ability to serve as a dispatchable source of low-carbon energy makes it an attractive option for slashing power sector carbon emissions. However, the EPA’s proposed scenario highlights the supply hurdles that must be overcome for large-scale co-firing. The challenges lie not only in producing sufficient hydrogen but also in ensuring efficient infrastructure for its distribution.
The hydrogen revolution promises a cleaner and sustainable future for the power sector, but careful planning and investment are essential to navigate the complexities of scaling up green hydrogen production and distribution. The successful implementation of EPA’s historic carbon emissions standards will mark a significant step towards a greener and more resilient energy ecosystem.
