The EU has a target of 40 GW electrolysis capacity by 2030, rising from a negligible amount today. The past year many electrolysis projects were announced.
THEMA has built a database of hydrogen projects that shows announced production of green hydrogen so far only amounts to 25 GW.
Hydrogen will play an important role in reaching net zero by 2050 in the EU. As an important step on the way, the European Commission has suggested targeting an increase in the electrolyser capacity from a negligible amount today to 40 GW by 2030. To reach this target, accelerating the build-out of electrolysis capacity is needed, and in the past year, we have witnessed the beginning of this trend.
THEMA follows the development of the European hydrogen economy closely and has built a database of announced hydrogen projects. The database covers most countries in Europe and includes an overview of projects in all parts of the value chain for hydrogen, from production – through both electrolysis and blue hydrogen – storage, transportation and demand. We have included projects in all phases, from announced projects that have yet to be funded, to projects that are under construction or even already in operation. The database has been used as a foundation for the analysis performed in the chapter on hydrogen in THEMA’s most recent Technology Outlook report and it has been used to develop the input data for our modelling of a future hydrogen market in Europe in our most recent Power Market Outlooks.
Announced projects for hydrogen production via electrolysis said to be commissioned by 2030 currently amounts to slightly above 28 GW, as can be seen in the figure above. This means that an additional 12 GW of capacity is needed for the EU to reach its target, as shown by the grey dotted line. Almost a third of announced projects are located in the Netherlands, while the remaining capacity is found mainly in Sweden, Denmark, Spain and Germany. With the currently announced projects, the EU target of 40 GW will be reached ten years delayed, in 2040. The green dotted line in the figure shows the 6 GW EU target for electrolysis capacity by 2024. This target will be reached one year after schedule with currently announced projects.
THEMA’s Technology Outlook report discusses what it takes to reach the 40 GW target in more detail. Up-scaling manufacturing capacity for electrolyzers and establishing financial support mechanisms both nationally and on an EU level are two of the prerequisites to meet the target. The recently announced EU Clean Hydrogen Partnership, which has been granted funding of 1 bn EUR towards establishing a European supply chain for clean hydrogen, is an important step on the way to financing many of the announced projects and incentivize an additional 12 GW towards 2030.