New research from Norway reveals that reaching approximately 140 GW of green hydrogen generation capacity by 2050 could make green hydrogen economically viable in Europe.
Researchers from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) have found that this level of capacity can effectively balance system costs and increase renewable energy integration, making green hydrogen sustainable without subsidies.
The study “Investments in green hydrogen as a flexibility source for the European power system by 2050: Does it pay off?” published in Applied Energy focuses on the economic viability of green hydrogen as a flexible solution for Europe’s power systems by 2050. Researchers used the European Model for Power System Investment with Renewable Energy (EMPIRE), which includes hydrogen technology to account for power price uncertainties affecting green hydrogen feasibility.
Using the open-source EMPIRE model, NTNU assessed optimal investments over a horizon of 40 to 50 years, covering generation, storage, and transmission capacity. The research examined green hydrogen’s role in enhancing system flexibility, particularly in reducing renewable energy curtailment and increasing temporal flexibility in power sectors dominated by variable renewable energies like wind and solar.
The researchers also assessed long-term price trajectories for green hydrogen. They estimate the average long-term green hydrogen price at around €30 ($32) per MWh, starting from 2025–2030 and possibly rising to €70/MWh by 2050–2055. This estimation indicates a significant potential for green hydrogen to become economically viable in market scenarios demanding electrolyzer technology and green hydrogen production.
The study identifies Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, and Norway as strong contenders for green hydrogen development. By 2050, demand across sectors like transportation, industry, residential, and power is expected to rise, with hydrogen demand in the power sector potentially reaching 43 TWh under Business-As-Usual conditions.
