The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has released a new report projecting global hydrogen demand up to 2050, identifying South Korea, Japan, and Europe as the initial key markets.
The ICS report suggests that meeting a modest 30 million tonnes of annual global green hydrogen demand would necessitate up to 411 new hydrogen vessels or 500 vessels if transported as ammonia. This scaling is a monumental challenge considering the current state of hydrogen transport infrastructure. The world’s only trading liquid hydrogen carrier, the Suiso Frontier, has a mere 1,250 cubic meter capacity. Developing larger capacity designs and scaling production will require significant technological advancements and investment.
To put these projections into perspective, it’s crucial to compare them with existing benchmarks. For instance, the current global shipping fleet consists of around 50,000 merchant ships. Adding 411-500 specialized hydrogen vessels represents a substantial increase, requiring extensive manufacturing capabilities and supply chain coordination. Furthermore, the necessary electricity production to support this hydrogen demand is equivalent to the annual output of South and Central America combined, highlighting the enormity of the task.
Hydrogen as an Enabler
Guy Platten, ICS’s secretary-general, emphasizes hydrogen’s role in keeping the net-zero by 2050 scenario within reach. He notes that hydrogen-based fuel sources would need to scale fivefold from current levels, reaching approximately 500 million tonnes between 2030 and 2050. While this vision is ambitious, the high variability in potential demand and the industry’s dominance in hydrogen consumption pose significant challenges.
The development of large-scale hydrogen carriers and the necessary infrastructure to support global trade is fraught with technological and economic hurdles. Transporting hydrogen at -253°C requires advanced materials and insulation techniques, which are still under development. The cost implications of building and maintaining a fleet of hydrogen carriers also need thorough analysis. Moreover, the economic viability of such projects must be critically evaluated against alternative energy sources and existing transport methods.
The ICS report suggests that industry will dominate hydrogen demand, with shipping playing a crucial enabling role. This interdependence underscores the need for coordinated efforts across sectors to achieve the desired outcomes. However, the reliance on hydrogen for shipping raises questions about the overall efficiency and sustainability of such an approach, especially when compared to other decarbonization strategies.
While hydrogen holds promise as a clean fuel source, it’s essential to compare its potential against other decarbonization strategies. For instance, battery electric and ammonia-fueled vessels are also being explored as viable alternatives. A critical assessment of the efficiency, scalability, and environmental impact of these options is necessary to determine the most feasible path forward.
