India’s ambition to capture 10% of the global green hydrogen market by 2030 rests on a staggering projection: US$92 billion in planned investments, five million tones of annual production, and the potential to cut 50 million tones of carbon emissions per year.
The National Green Hydrogen Mission, launched in 2023, frames green hydrogen as both an energy security tool and an export commodity. India, which imports over 80% of its crude oil, spends heavily to meet industrial and transport demand. Hydrogen produced via electrolysis using renewable energy offers a pathway to reduce import dependency while positioning India as a supplier to hydrogen-hungry economies like the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.
So far, contracts for 862,000 tones of production capacity have been awarded to 19 companies, while 3,000 MW of electrolyzer manufacturing capacity has been allocated to 15 firms, according to official figures. Industrial heavyweights such as Adani Group and Reliance Industries have announced multibillion-dollar green hydrogen investments. Smaller players are also moving quickly: in May, Junu Joule Green Energy signed a US$1.3 billion deal with Germany’s Select Energy to develop an export hub in Andhra Pradesh, while US electrolyzer maker Ohmium International partnered with Toyota Kirloskar Motor to pilot decentralized hydrogen grids.
These commitments reflect a growing recognition that the economics of hydrogen are shifting. An EY study last week projected India’s production costs could fall by 40% by 2030, reaching US$3–3.75 per kilogram as taxes, transmission charges, and electrolyzer prices decline. That would put India closer to the US Department of Energy’s target of US$2/kg, a critical benchmark for global competitiveness.
Market Potential vs. Structural Hurdles
The global hydrogen market is forecast to surge from US$8.8 billion in 2024 to nearly US$200 billion by 2034, with exports from India potentially contributing US$3–5 billion annually within the next decade. The prize is substantial—but so are the hurdles.
Grid bottlenecks remain a pressing concern. India’s renewable energy penetration is climbing, yet transmission networks and energy storage systems lag far behind what is needed to support industrial-scale electrolysis. Land acquisition disputes, particularly for large solar and wind farms, pose additional risks to timelines. Analysts also point to high capital costs for hydrogen storage and transportation infrastructure, which erode competitiveness against fossil-based alternatives.
Technology readiness is another constraint. Despite falling electrolyser costs, efficiency levels are not yet sufficient to ensure low-cost hydrogen at scale. Incremental gains are expected through R&D and global supply chain integration, but the pace will be critical.
The mission has laid out broad targets, but detailed regulations on subsidies, carbon pricing, and export incentives remain in flux. Without predictable frameworks, the scale of private-sector financing required—over US$90 billion in less than a decade—will be difficult to secure.
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