Kazakhstan’s pitch to deepen energy ties with Germany comes as Europe continues to recalibrate its supply chains under tighter climate and security constraints.
During talks in Berlin between Kazakh Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev and German Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche, the two sides revisited oil flows, industrial cooperation, and the more uncertain proposition of exporting green hydrogen from Central Asia to the European Union.
The scale of Kazakhstan’s economy provides part of the context for these discussions. According to International Monetary Fund data cited by the Kazakh side, the country’s GDP has reached roughly $300 billion, with per capita income around $15,000 and average real growth of 3.6 percent between 2000 and 2025. That macroeconomic stability underpins Kazakhstan’s ambition to position itself as a long term energy and industrial partner for Europe, not only a hydrocarbons supplier.
Oil remains the most concrete pillar of cooperation. Kazakhstan already supplies crude to Germany, including volumes destined for the refinery in Schwedt refinery, a facility that has taken on greater strategic relevance since Berlin reduced its dependence on Russian feedstock. These flows offer Germany diversification benefits, while Kazakhstan gains access to a high value European market. Yet oil trade alone does not address the EU’s decarbonization trajectory, which is where hydrogen enters the conversation.
Both ministers referenced prospects for producing green hydrogen in Kazakhstan for export to Germany and other EU states. The concept aligns with Europe’s broader strategy to import renewable molecules from regions with abundant land and renewable resources. Kazakhstan has vast solar and wind potential, but translating that into exportable hydrogen raises economic and logistical questions. Electrolyzer deployment, renewable build out, water availability, and transport infrastructure would all need to scale simultaneously. None of these elements were accompanied by cost estimates or timelines during the talks, underscoring that hydrogen remains aspirational rather than bankable.
Logistics is a recurring constraint. The ministers reaffirmed support for the Trans Caspian International Transport Route as a backbone for trade between Central Asia and Europe. While the corridor has improved resilience for containerized goods, hydrogen exports would require either conversion into derivatives such as ammonia or methanol or entirely new pipeline concepts. Each option carries efficiency losses and capital costs that currently challenge the competitiveness of long distance green hydrogen trade.
Beyond energy, the dialogue highlighted industrial and technological cooperation across mechanical engineering, chemicals, mining, and metallurgy, coupled with German technology transfer. For Kazakhstan, these sectors are central to moving up the value chain and reducing exposure to commodity cycles. For Germany, they offer opportunities to anchor supply relationships with a politically stable Central Asian partner at a time when global industrial policy is becoming more fragmented.
