A groundbreaking analysis has unearthed that both liquid hydrogen (LH2) and 100% synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK), recognized as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), offer feasible alternatives to traditional Jet-A fuel, particularly for long-haul aviation when they are produced through pathways enabling net-zero well-to-wake (WTWa) emissions.
The analysis critically evaluates the WTWa performance, accounting for both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, of a futuristic subsonic long-range aircraft with a capacity of 300 passengers and a flight range of 13,890 kilometers.
Utilizing the GREET model—an established tool for assessing greenhouse gas, regulated emissions, and energy use—the study quantifies the emissions during both the use phase of the aircraft and throughout fuel production. From a comprehensive evaluation of over 100 different production pathways, LH2 shows remarkable potential to achieve net-zero or even negative WTWa CO2-equivalent emissions, particularly when synthesized from biomass or through integrated fermentation processes coupled with carbon sequestration. Conversely, 100% SPK exhibits the capability to diminish WTWa CO2-equivalent emissions by 70% to 85% in comparison to Jet-A fuel, particularly when derived from miscanthus as a feedstock.
The extensive study extends its scope to a high-level supply analysis which projects that by 2050, the production capacity of SAF and hydrogen could adequately meet the energy requirements of long-haul aviation. This projection assumes a continuation of a 4% annual increase in traffic and the full adoption of these fuels across the industry. Such findings offer pivotal insights that are crucial for informing R&D investments, analyzing fuel costs, and shaping aviation policy to foster a more sustainable aviation future.
These insights, therefore, provide a basis not only for technological innovation but also for strategic policy-making in aviation, underscoring the need for supportive infrastructure and regulatory frameworks to facilitate this transition. The analysis frames a promising outlook where sustainable aviation fuels are not just an alternative but fundamental to achieving decarbonization goals in aviation, thereby playing a crucial role in global climate change mitigation efforts.
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