The Netherlands has recalibrated its circular economy ambitions, setting a new target to cut raw material use by 15 percent by 2035 compared with 2016 levels.
The revised goal, part of the updated National Program for a Circular Economy unveiled by caretaker State Secretary for the Environment Thierry Aartsen (VVD), replaces the earlier commitment to halve the use of new abiotic materials—metals, minerals, and fossil-based inputs—by 2030.
The update signals a shift from aspirational rhetoric to what Aartsen described as “more concrete, compact, and therefore more realistic” objectives. Yet it also exposes a growing tension between environmental ambition and economic pragmatism as the government faces slowing progress, shrinking budgets, and increasing industry resistance to unilateral regulation.
Unlike the original 2030 target, which focused solely on virgin abiotic inputs, the new 2035 framework broadens the accounting method to include reused materials and biotic resources, such as crops and biomass, while excluding fossil fuels. The overarching objective—a fully circular economy by 2050—remains unchanged.
Complementary goals have also been introduced: by 2035, 82 percent of total waste should be recycled, and at least 55 percent of all materials used must consist of recycled or sustainable biogenic inputs. These figures, Aartsen argued, better reflect both industrial feasibility and global supply dynamics. “A circular economy is an absolute necessity economically and geopolitically,” he said, emphasizing the need to align environmental policy with resource security and international competitiveness.
The Netherlands imports roughly 90 percent of its raw materials, making its economy acutely vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and global commodity volatility. Recent supply shocks—from critical metal shortages to disrupted fertilizer chains—have intensified calls for circular solutions, yet the feasibility of national targets remains contested.
Critical Assessment from the Environmental Agency
The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, PBL) delivered a sharp critique of the revised program, warning that the updated goals rest largely on “intentions and proposals” rather than binding measures. In its reflection published on October 14, 2025, the agency noted that government funding for circular initiatives is set to decline after 2025, creating a “large gap” between ambition and implementation capacity.
Earlier PBL analyses had already deemed the 2030 material reduction target “highly unlikely” to be met, citing weak policy instruments and limited market incentives. The agency has repeatedly urged the introduction of stronger regulatory levers, including minimum recycled content standards and higher prices for non-circular products, to drive behavioral change across supply chains.
Without such measures, the transition risks stalling. Data from Statistics Netherlands show that material consumption in 2023 remained only marginally below 2016 levels, despite ongoing policy efforts and industry pilots.
Aartsen acknowledged the shortfall but maintained that national-level mandates could backfire in a globally exposed manufacturing landscape. “It is unwise to set minimum recycled plastic content on a national level. Doing that in the Netherlands alone would only drive companies away,” he said, suggesting alignment with EU-level regulations instead.
This stance reflects a broader recalibration in Dutch sustainability policy. While the 2050 circular economy goal remains politically intact, the instruments to achieve it are shifting toward EU harmonization and market-based mechanisms rather than domestic enforcement. For industries already navigating energy transition costs, supply chain decarbonization, and carbon pricing, the move may offer temporary relief—but it also risks slowing structural change in material efficiency and waste reduction.
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