According to the investor and financial sources, a severe decrease in hydrogen shares is expected to hurt Thyssenkrupp’s (TKAG.DE) hydrogen business Nucera’s valuation, making it more difficult to list the division in a prospective share sale.
Nucera has been difficult to evaluate from its inception, with experts estimating a range of 3 billion to 6 billion euros ($3.4 billion to $6.8 billion) for the company, reflecting the uncertainties surrounding the expanding hydrogen industry.
“The prices investors are willing to pay for such assets have decreased,” said Ingo Speich, head of sustainability and corporate governance at Deka Investment, one of Thyssenkrupp’s top-20 shareholders.
“It’s not because the asset’s quality has deteriorated; it’s because market conditions have changed and certain business models are no longer highly valued.”
Nucera’s competitors’ stocks have plummeted, with NEL ASA (NEL.OL) of Norway, ITM Power (ITM.L) of the United Kingdom, and McPhy Energy (MCPHY.PA) of France all down more than half in the past year.
They have outperformed global (.MIWD00000PUS) and European (.STOXX) equities, which have gained 3–4% during the same time period, as well as renewables stocks (.FTET50), which have plummeted 9%.
Thyssenkrupp has stated that an IPO of Nucera might take place in the first half of 2022, but the company has yet to make a definite decision on the matter and has left the possibility of a partial sale open.
Nucera, a 66-34 joint venture between Thyssenkrupp and Italy’s De Nora (IPO-DENR.MI), is the world’s leading provider of chlor-alkali membrane technology for hydrogen production and is also involved in alkaline water electrolysis.
“The market climate has a significant impact on valuation. And that’s a little shaky right now “DSW, a lobbying firm that represents Thyssenkrupp’s private shareholders, said Marc Tuengler. “The clock is ticking.”
Analysts at Bank of America estimated Thyssenkrupp’s 66 percent interest in Nucera to be worth 2.3 billion euros in a note issued following Nucera’s capital markets day in January, implying a total value of 3.4 billion euros for the company.
The asset is presently valued at 3 billion to 4 billion euros, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Thyssenkrupp did not respond to a request for comment.
Nucera had a profit of 27 million euros in the fiscal year that ended in September, with revenues of 319 million euros, a figure that is predicted to quadruple to 900 million to one billion euros by 2025-26.
“The multiple that Nucera may have gotten nine months ago can’t be attained as readily now,” Deka’s Speich said.
