A recent study by Evolved Energy Research has shed light on the ongoing debate surrounding the IRA 45V clean hydrogen tax credits.
The study reveals that the three pillars of new clean supply, hourly matching, and deliverability are crucial for the widespread deployment of clean hydrogen in the coming decade. It also emphasizes that these pillars are necessary to prevent a significant increase in carbon emissions and maintain progress towards climate goals. The study’s findings debunk the unfounded claims made by proponents of looser rules, who argue that the three pillars impede industry growth. With evidence mounting in favor of the three pillars, it is essential to examine their goals, technology, potential impact, and the challenges they may face.
The three pillars of clean hydrogen production—new clean supply, hourly matching, and deliverability—are designed to ensure the production and utilization of hydrogen align with climate objectives. New clean supply requires that hydrogen projects use renewable energy sources, promoting the integration of clean energy into the production process. Hourly matching incentivizes the operation of electrolyzers in harmony with the availability of renewable energy, preventing reliance on fossil fuel-based electricity during periods of low renewables generation. Deliverability ensures the transportation and storage infrastructure are robust enough to support the scaling up of clean hydrogen production and distribution.
The study affirms that the three pillars will enable the deployment of over 8 million tonnes of electrolytic hydrogen by 2030, in line with the ambitious targets set by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Electrolyzer deployment under both loose requirements and the three pillars is projected to be substantial, with cumulative capacity ranging from 70 to 120 gigawatts by 2030. These figures demonstrate the significant scale of deployment made possible by the IRA subsidies for clean hydrogen and renewable energy. By oversizing renewable energy capacity and leveraging wind and solar resources, hourly-matched projects can achieve high levels of utilization, making regions with these resources ideal for early adoption.
While the three pillars offer numerous benefits, they do present challenges that need to be addressed. The study highlights the importance of accelerating the buildout of renewable energy infrastructure to ensure a positive outcome in emissions reduction. If renewable energy deployment remains constrained, there is a risk of increased fossil fuel generation to support hydrogen production, particularly in projects relying on annual matching. Additionally, the study emphasizes the need for investor returns to be driven by sufficient electrolyzer deployment, rather than maximizing shareholder value for a few companies. Public subsidies should support technology cost reductions and the development of an unsubsidized clean hydrogen market, rather than being solely focused on profitability.
In conclusion, the Evolved Energy Research study confirms the essential role of the three pillars—new clean supply, hourly matching, and deliverability—for the successful deployment of clean hydrogen in the United States. These pillars are instrumental in reducing carbon emissions, supporting the transition to a clean power sector, and establishing the credibility of the clean hydrogen industry. By adhering to these pillars, the industry can incentivize the right investments and behaviors, ensuring the integration of clean hydrogen into a decarbonized energy system. As the United States aims to achieve its climate goals, it is imperative that Treasury, DOE, and the White House require all electrolytic hydrogen projects to meet the three pillars in order to claim the highly lucrative 45V tax credits.
