Europe’s investment in a hydrogen-capable infrastructure network, from pipelines to power plants, is gaining momentum. With 12 projects earmarked to convert or expand LNG terminals to import hydrogen derivatives and the proposal of 50,165 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines, this endeavor represents a significant energy transition.
Yet, a narrative of skepticism emerges as promises to decarbonize Europe hinge on a network that appears both embryonic and economically impractical. A staggering 44.6 gigawatts of gas-fired power capacity are intended to burn hydrogen, framed against a backdrop of stalled renewable hydrogen production. The expansive pipeline network, having grown over 40% within a year, underscores ambitious industrial shifts yet highlights growing concerns over integrating hydrogen into existing energy systems.
Hydrogen Projects, Current Status and Risks
Despite the ambitious scope, Europe’s hydrogen projects remain largely underdeveloped. No hydrogen derivative import projects have commenced construction, and most initiatives lack firm investment decisions. Among the 12 derivative import terminals planned, only three have defined capacities, and just five have projected start dates, indicating their nascent positioning on the green energy timeline. The hydrogen-burning power initiatives reveal similar trends, with three-fourths of the projects in an early phase and substantial ambiguity regarding their operational timelines. Europe’s strategy may risk anchoring its energy consumption to fossil fuels if hydrogen ventures proceed without verified plans for renewable hydrogen utilization.
Pipeline Development
The proposed European hydrogen pipeline network illustrates a marked increase in planning, yet this development is fraught with technical challenges. Retrofitting gas pipelines to carry hydrogen requires significant modifications due to hydrogen’s propensity to embrittle materials and pose leakage risks. Furthermore, a large fraction of projects have not clarified hydrogen blending percentages, rendering the logistics of such an extensive transportation network questionable. Public and private investments are channeled through initiatives like the European Hydrogen Backbone, uniting strategy with infrastructure goals. However, this alignment appears to be more symbolic without substantive commitments to green hydrogen projects.
The Scaling Dilemma and Sectoral Implications
The burgeoning anticipation of hydrogen’s market potential as envisioned by EU policies faces a stark contrast against the pace of renewable hydrogen production. Presently, a meager 0.3% of produced hydrogen is classified as renewable. Forecasts suggest that green hydrogen production will not achieve competitive cost parity with fossil-fuel counterparts before the next decade. Strategic investments in hydrogen infrastructure could potentially misallocate Europe’s limited green hydrogen resources, particularly within sectors effectively decarbonized through electrification or biofuels.
Strategic Alignment and Focused Application
The narrative emerging from the hydrogen infrastructure development in Europe diverges into practical consideration versus policy ambitions. Aligning policy development more closely with realistic market and technological capabilities is paramount. Green hydrogen should be strategically employed within sectors lacking viable alternatives, such as ammonia production, or non-electrifiable transport means like long-range aviation. Embarking on a more nuanced, sector-specific approach can facilitate the effective channeling of Europe’s renewable hydrogen resources, preventing the inadvertent extension of the region’s reliance on gas and fossil-based hydrogen.
