Europe’s ambitious plans for producing green hydrogen, a renewable form of hydrogen produced with renewable energy, have sparked a race among African countries eager to become suppliers.
The European Union (EU) sees green hydrogen as a cost-effective way to reduce emissions in industries that are difficult to decarbonize, such as aviation and heavy land transport. However, this rush to export green hydrogen has raised concerns about the potential impact on local energy supplies and the risk of neocolonialism.
Green hydrogen goals and investments
The EU has set a target of producing 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen annually within its own borders by 2030 and importing the same amount. Currently, global production capacity for green hydrogen is only 109 kilotons, a fraction of what the EU aims to achieve. To reach its goal, the EU is investing billions of euros in building domestic capacities and forming partnerships with future export countries.
The EU has signed agreements with several countries, including Egypt, Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Namibia, to establish these partnerships. These agreements are often seen as a win-win situation, as they provide investment opportunities and job creation for poorer countries in northern and sub-Saharan Africa. However, experts have warned that there are significant risks associated with the rush to export green hydrogen.
Local energy supplies
One of the main concerns is that the massive expansion of green hydrogen exports could take up most of the renewable electricity in developing countries, leaving local populations at risk of energy shortages. In countries like Namibia, where just over half of the population has access to electricity, this could be a significant problem. Analysts have emphasized the need for these countries to find the right balance between domestic needs and export potential.
Godrje Rustomjee, an analyst at the African Climate Foundation, has warned that without careful planning, green hydrogen could become “another neocolonial project”. He expressed concerns that foreign countries could come in with foreign direct investment (FDI), but the benefits and added value would end up being extracted and sent to Europe, leaving local communities with little benefit.
Risk of diverting resources for export
Another concern is that developing countries may divert resources, including renewable energy, into production for export, potentially at the expense of local needs. Marta Lovisolo, a hydrogen analyst at environmental NGO Bellona, has pointed out that the risk of developing countries prioritizing exports over local needs is “extremely high”. She compared it to the history of fossil fuel extraction, where countries were willing to go all out to become exporters without receiving the necessary guarantees.
The EU has also set rules for renewable hydrogen production, including a criterion called “additionality” which requires hydrogen producers to use only new electricity generation capacity from renewable energy sources for the production of green hydrogen. This is to ensure that hydrogen production does not take away existing renewable energy from the grid, potentially increasing dependence on fossil fuels elsewhere.
However, the EU has included an introductory clause to speed up the industry, exempting green hydrogen plants that start production before 2028 from additionality rules for the following ten years until 2038. This has raised concerns about the potential “cannibalization” of existing local infrastructure for export purposes. Analysts have noted that this could spark a race among exporting nations to meet the 2028 deadline, potentially diverting resources from local needs.
Europe’s green hydrogen plans have created opportunities for African countries to become suppliers and attract investment and job creation. However, there are concerns about the potential impact on local energy supplies, the risk of neocolonialism, and the diversion of resources for export. The EU’s rules for renewable
