According to Aurora Energy Research’s most recent global electrolyzer database, which was released together with the biannual Hydrogen Market Attractiveness Report, there are currently 957 GW worth of electrolyzer projects in development worldwide.
The pipeline dwarfs the 270 MW of operational electrolyser capacity and has increased by 592 GW since April 2022.
But weak foundations characterize the majority of ongoing initiatives. Since April 2022, the Spirit of Scotia project in Canada has added 500 GW to the world’s electrolyzer pipeline, but it still lacks a target commissioning date. According to Aurora, another 349 GW of projects have not yet advanced past the first planning stage of development because they lack crucial information like precise locations, technology providers, or expected completion dates. Only 11% of the global pipeline, in the company’s estimation, has progressed past the preliminary planning stage.
According to commitments, there will be 202 GW of operational electrolyzer capacity worldwide by 2030, although more than 60% of this capacity is made up of unfinished projects. Globally, there are 76 GW worth of projects in more advanced development phases, with Europe being the most favored region with a 53% share.
According to Aurora, the operational capacity of electrolyzers will increase from 8 GW/year currently to over 30 GW/year by 2025. With 70% of the anticipated industrial capacity to be situated there, Europe is once again the dominant region. By 2030, German industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp will be overtaken as the world’s top maker of electrolyzers by Belgian engineering company John Cockerill. Between now and 2030, 231 GW of electrolyzers might be produced if all producers worked at full efficiency.
By 2050, Aurora’s modeling predicts that the demand for hydrogen in Europe would reach 1,885 TWh. This is assuming that Europe achieves Net Zero by that year. By 2030, regional consumption is expected to increase to 480 TWh from the present level of 300 TWh. Up until the mid-2030s, Aurora anticipates that the industrial sector will consume more hydrogen than any other sector, with demand from the transportation sector expected to be about equal to industrial consumption by 2050. By 2030 and 2050, hydrogen derivatives would make up 32% and 33% of all hydrogen use, respectively.