Thyssenkrupp Nucera’s latest preliminary results offer a snapshot of a sector caught between long-term climate ambitions and short-term investment caution.
Despite a 2% dip in total revenue to €845 million for fiscal year 2024/25, the company reported a modest €2 million positive EBIT—a sharp contrast to last year’s €14 million loss and an unusual upswing in a market where capital expenditure cycles are lengthening rather than accelerating.
The near-break-even performance reflects the continued strength of Nucera’s Chlor-Alkali division, which delivered €386 million in revenue—up 14% year-on-year—and €58 million EBIT. That profitability has effectively become the company’s stabilizing force. By contrast, the green hydrogen division generated €459 million, down from €524 million the previous year, with EBIT losses narrowing to €–56 million. While the reduced loss signals improved cost management and operational efficiency, it also reflects slowing project execution across the sector as final investment decisions (FIDs) slip into later fiscal years.
The most significant indicator of where Nucera—and the broader green hydrogen industry—stands comes from its order intake: a drop from €636 million to €348 million overall. The green hydrogen segment accounts for the steepest contraction, with new orders plunging 93% from €356 million to €26 million. As a result, the hydrogen order backlog has fallen nearly by half, from €1.1 billion to €0.6 billion.
This decline aligns with a year marked by postponed offtake contracts, slower permitting progress, and delayed award cycles in Europe and the Middle East. Nucera’s position in the alkaline electrolyser market means its fortunes are closely tied to utility-scale project developers—many of whom are re-evaluating timelines due to power-price volatility and uncertainty around long-term operating support schemes.
Management has responded with tighter cost controls, cuts across manufacturing and R&D, and a renewed focus on liquidity preservation. The company notes improvements in free cash flow driven by leaner operations. It has also continued work on updated electrolyser stack designs aimed at improving efficiency and lowering system costs—developments likely to become critical differentiators once market conditions stabilize.
However, these adjustments highlight a deeper challenge: production scale-up depends on volume orders that are currently missing. Without robust demand signals or clearer financial frameworks—especially Contracts for Difference (CfDs) and long-term offtake arrangements—commercial deployment will remain inconsistent.
For fiscal year 2025/26, Nucera expects revenue in the €500–600 million range and EBIT between €–30 million and €0 million. The forecast reflects the weaker backlog and the expectation that hydrogen project inertia will persist until policy incentives and corporate procurement strategies translate into bankable commitments.
The company’s resilience still rests heavily on its Chlor-Alkali business, where stable industrial demand provides consistent revenue independent of the hydrogen cycle. This cushion allows Nucera to maintain R&D spending and preserve its manufacturing footprint without relying on immediate green hydrogen recovery.
Nucera’s fiscal trajectory underscores the disconnect between political ambition and commercial readiness. While governments promote hydrogen hubs and large-scale electrolyser deployment, private-sector buyers are slowing commitments until long-term economics become clearer. For now, the company’s slight return to positive EBIT signals disciplined internal management, but its shrinking order pipeline points to structural delays the wider industry has yet to resolve.
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